Cybertruck now officially in Production.
07-18-2023, 01:27 PM
#42
Team Owner
Thread Starter
Can't compare this until the assembly line is able to mass produce the Cybertruck. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM WILL BE SPOKEN FOR BEFORE IT ROLLS OFF THE ASSEMBLY LINE. The only reason why F150 sells more is because they can produce more AT THIS POINT. There are over 1.5 MILLION reservations. Even if only 500k people will take delivery still means years of being sold out for years. F150's are NOT sold out. You can find plenty on every dealer's lot.
07-18-2023, 01:41 PM
#43
Safety Car
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Why do people celebrate anything vehicle related when there hasn't been a single customer delivery..?
07-18-2023, 01:42 PM
#44
Race Director
Can't compare this until the assembly line is able to mass produce the Cybertruck. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM WILL BE SPOKEN FOR BEFORE IT ROLLS OFF THE ASSEMBLY LINE. The only reason why F150 sells more is because they can produce more AT THIS POINT. There are over 1.5 MILLION reservations. Even if only 500k people will take delivery still means years of being sold out for years. F150's are NOT sold out. You can find plenty on every dealer's lot.
For reference, Ford closed resverations at 200k, and said that was a 3 year backlog. That means cyber truck has a reservation backlog of about 20 years based off similar capacity and assumption of those reservations being real and not people trying to flip them. Even if we take your 500k number, that would mean they've got a ~7 year backlog of orders.
Now we all know that the reservation system is just a way to get a zero interest loan for companies and a way to speculate on what could be resold for a profit for the reservation holders, but it seems entirely plausible that the 1.5 million reservations could end up netting 100k sales or less. It's one thing to reserve something for a 100$ refundable deposit. It's another thing to pay a completely unknown amount of money with 7% interest rates. I know people think it's gonna be cheaper than a lightning, but I bet it comes in priced very similar to the hummer EV. Also mind blowing to think that they're producing vehicles for customers and don't have a price for them yet. Totally insane.
Also worth noting that Tesla hasn't said how many y reservations it has. It's all data that's crowdsourced by Tesla fanboys. Estimates in 2021 said they had 3 million reservations, so it's pretty clear these numbers are pure conjecture.
07-18-2023, 03:27 PM
#45
Team Owner
Thread Starter
For reference, Ford closed resverations at 200k, and said that was a 3 year backlog. That means cyber truck has a reservation backlog of about 20 years based off similar capacity and assumption of those reservations being real and not people trying to flip them. Even if we take your 500k number, that would mean they've got a ~7 year backlog of orders.
Now we all know that the reservation system is just a way to get a zero interest loan for companies and a way to speculate on what could be resold for a profit for the reservation holders, but it seems entirely plausible that the 1.5 million reservations could end up netting 100k sales or less. It's one thing to reserve something for a 100$ refundable deposit. It's another thing to pay a completely unknown amount of money with 7% interest rates. I know people think it's gonna be cheaper than a lightning, but I bet it comes in priced very similar to the hummer EV. Also mind blowing to think that they're producing vehicles for customers and don't have a price for them yet. Totally insane.
Also worth noting that Tesla hasn't said how many y reservations it has. It's all data that's crowdsourced by Tesla fanboys. Estimates in 2021 said they had 3 million reservations, so it's pretty clear these numbers are pure conjecture.
Now we all know that the reservation system is just a way to get a zero interest loan for companies and a way to speculate on what could be resold for a profit for the reservation holders, but it seems entirely plausible that the 1.5 million reservations could end up netting 100k sales or less. It's one thing to reserve something for a 100$ refundable deposit. It's another thing to pay a completely unknown amount of money with 7% interest rates. I know people think it's gonna be cheaper than a lightning, but I bet it comes in priced very similar to the hummer EV. Also mind blowing to think that they're producing vehicles for customers and don't have a price for them yet. Totally insane.
Also worth noting that Tesla hasn't said how many y reservations it has. It's all data that's crowdsourced by Tesla fanboys. Estimates in 2021 said they had 3 million reservations, so it's pretty clear these numbers are pure conjecture.
07-18-2023, 04:45 PM
#46
Le Mans Master
People are buying into a huge scam. When this contraption had its first press release, the claim was it could carry 3,500 pounds in the bed. I claim total and complete bull ****. It would need to have a frame and suspension built similarly like a Super Duty to carry this much weight safely.
07-18-2023, 05:17 PM
#47
Race Director
I predict you're right, but likely for different reasons. I bet they don't get anywhere NEAR that production level anytime soon. If they see a reduction in preorders coming, they're sort of incentivized to drag it out to maintain demand, vs opening the floodgates of production capacity and running out of backlog.
07-18-2023, 05:19 PM
#48
Melting Slicks
The fact they will sell all they can try to manufacture means zilch, zip, nada. This is supposed to be a lightweight truck which is competing in a market where high volume is the norm, not a limited production sports car. I agree that most that have lined up forever waiting for this thing are hoping for a flip and quick buck it's the society we live in now. I have been on the EV Hummer list since that was announced, if my number ever gets called and unless I can flip it I have zero interest in one anymore.
07-18-2023, 05:56 PM
#49
Team Owner
Thread Starter
I predict you're right, but likely for different reasons. I bet they don't get anywhere NEAR that production level anytime soon. If they see a reduction in preorders coming, they're sort of incentivized to drag it out to maintain demand, vs opening the floodgates of production capacity and running out of backlog.
07-18-2023, 06:02 PM
#50
Team Owner
Thread Starter
The fact they will sell all they can try to manufacture means zilch, zip, nada. This is supposed to be a lightweight truck which is competing in a market where high volume is the norm, not a limited production sports car. I agree that most that have lined up forever waiting for this thing are hoping for a flip and quick buck it's the society we live in now. I have been on the EV Hummer list since that was announced, if my number ever gets called and unless I can flip it I have zero interest in one anymore.
07-18-2023, 08:30 PM
#51
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A truck under 6000lbs will NOT have a 3500lb payload capacity. Also there is no current 1/2 ton EV on the market under 6000lbs.
07-18-2023, 09:41 PM
#53
Race Director
Most of what Tesla says about future products is total BS anyways. They're in the "list all kinds of crazy stats to generate buzz and then miss them all" world. The same people who brag about those stats before releas then play apologist and say "those were just stretch goals that nobody expected to hit".
07-18-2023, 11:00 PM
#54
Team Owner
Thread Starter
No way a boxy 7000 lbs truck will get that with that battery size.
Last edited by GrandSportC3; 07-18-2023 at 11:05 PM.
07-19-2023, 08:22 AM
#55
Race Director
We will see when the specs are out. I'm just speculating about weight. The information on battery size and range are based on unconfirmed leaks. If they are true, I don't see how a 7000+ lbs truck can have a range of 350 miles with a 100kwh battery. No way. Something is off there.. My Model X Plaid is 5390 lbs and very aerodynamic and it gets 333 mile range with a 99.4 kwh pack (they say 100 kwh but it is 99.4 kwh)
No way a boxy 7000 lbs truck will get that with that battery size.
No way a boxy 7000 lbs truck will get that with that battery size.
For it to be able to do even part of what they're claiming it probably has a 200 kwh battery like in hummer. That probably gives it the 300 mile range. There's probably a 100kwh version that will have like 150 miles of range. It almost certainly doesn't haul 3500lbs, but it might haul 1500. If it has those size batteries, it's probably a $150k plus vehicle. If you compare it to the model x plaid at 110k, it's GOT to be higher than that.
It's still mind-blowing to me that people will sign up "to buy something" with the reservation and have no idea about anything about it. No price. No specs. Just theories.
07-19-2023, 08:49 AM
#56
Race Director
You're starting to get it.
For it to be able to do even part of what they're claiming it probably has a 200 kwh battery like in hummer. That probably gives it the 300 mile range. There's probably a 100kwh version that will have like 150 miles of range. It almost certainly doesn't haul 3500lbs, but it might haul 1500. If it has those size batteries, it's probably a $150k plus vehicle. If you compare it to the model x plaid at 110k, it's GOT to be higher than that.
It's still mind-blowing to me that people will sign up "to buy something" with the reservation and have no idea about anything about it. No price. No specs. Just theories.
For it to be able to do even part of what they're claiming it probably has a 200 kwh battery like in hummer. That probably gives it the 300 mile range. There's probably a 100kwh version that will have like 150 miles of range. It almost certainly doesn't haul 3500lbs, but it might haul 1500. If it has those size batteries, it's probably a $150k plus vehicle. If you compare it to the model x plaid at 110k, it's GOT to be higher than that.
It's still mind-blowing to me that people will sign up "to buy something" with the reservation and have no idea about anything about it. No price. No specs. Just theories.
People didn’t put a $5000 deposit down on these….they put a measly $100 down on it, fully refundable no less. A completely meaningless deposit. Basically just so they could show their friends online that ‘hey-look, I’ve got a Cybertruck on order!!’ Id guess that >90% of them will never buy the truck anyway.
07-19-2023, 10:35 AM
#57
Team Owner
Thread Starter
You're starting to get it.
For it to be able to do even part of what they're claiming it probably has a 200 kwh battery like in hummer. That probably gives it the 300 mile range. There's probably a 100kwh version that will have like 150 miles of range. It almost certainly doesn't haul 3500lbs, but it might haul 1500. If it has those size batteries, it's probably a $150k plus vehicle. If you compare it to the model x plaid at 110k, it's GOT to be higher than that.
It's still mind-blowing to me that people will sign up "to buy something" with the reservation and have no idea about anything about it. No price. No specs. Just theories.
For it to be able to do even part of what they're claiming it probably has a 200 kwh battery like in hummer. That probably gives it the 300 mile range. There's probably a 100kwh version that will have like 150 miles of range. It almost certainly doesn't haul 3500lbs, but it might haul 1500. If it has those size batteries, it's probably a $150k plus vehicle. If you compare it to the model x plaid at 110k, it's GOT to be higher than that.
It's still mind-blowing to me that people will sign up "to buy something" with the reservation and have no idea about anything about it. No price. No specs. Just theories.
It's almost a certainty that the battery will be 100kwh (99.4) for the initial production run. If it is, I don't see 350 mile range as possible. Physics won't allow that UNLESS the truck weighs a lot less than expected.
07-19-2023, 10:36 AM
#58
Team Owner
Thread Starter
People didn’t put a $5000 deposit down on these….they put a measly $100 down on it, fully refundable no less. A completely meaningless deposit. Basically just so they could show their friends online that ‘hey-look, I’ve got a Cybertruck on order!!’ Id guess that >90% of them will never buy the truck anyway.
Hopefully, 2 months from now (late September), the official specs will be out and we no longer need to speculate. How many will sell will depend on price and we don't know anything about the price right now.
07-19-2023, 12:13 PM
#59
Race Director
Teslas are much more efficient than other brands.. I would think that the Cybertruck would need 125kwh battery for 350 mile range and 200 kwh battery for 500 mile range. Based on it's size, the weight should be around 7000 lbs.. It won't be a monster like the Hummer.
It's almost a certainty that the battery will be 100kwh (99.4) for the initial production run. If it is, I don't see 350 mile range as possible. Physics won't allow that UNLESS the truck weighs a lot less than expected.
It's almost a certainty that the battery will be 100kwh (99.4) for the initial production run. If it is, I don't see 350 mile range as possible. Physics won't allow that UNLESS the truck weighs a lot less than expected.
Regardless, we know they're lying about at least some.of their claims. Which ones is the question.
